BBWAA Award Predictions

The finalists for the 4 major awards are announced and only 3 people remain for each major award. Here are my picks for each award.

Rookie of the Years:

NL: Ronald Acuna Jr.

The NL ROY will come down to Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr. Their stats are relatively similar; Acuna had a slash line of .293/.366./.552 with a .917 OPS, while Soto had a slash line of .292/.406/.517 with an OPS of .922. The two things that put Acuna ahead of Soto is his WAR and his late-season surge. Baseball Reference puts Acuna’s WAR (Wins above replacement) at 4.1 while Soto’s WAR is at 3. This puts him at a considerable advantage in the ROY consideration. The second thing that puts him ahead is his late-season surge. From August 8th to the end of the season, Acuna had a 1.083 OPS with 15 home runs, including a stretch where he hit 8 homers in 8 days. Recency bias should put him in a favorable position for the ROY.

AL: Shohei Ohtani

The AL ROY is extremely interesting this year. Shohei Othani is a pitcher and a hitter, so it will be interesting to see how voters value his time at each. Nonetheless, he should win the AL ROY, despite his lack of plate appearances and innings. Miguel Andujar outnumbers Othani 606 to 367 in plate appearances, which is a major difference. Othani makes up for this in a few ways. First, he also pitched 51.2 innings effectively. This should make up a considerable amount of plate appearances, if not all. Secondly, Othani was better at the plate in his limited plate appearances than Andujar. Othani had a .925 OPS, compared to Andujar’s .855. Lastly, Andujar was a horrific defender. His defense takes away a lot of his value, meaning that Othani should win the ROY.

Manager of the Year:

NL: Craig Counsell

It’s hard to choose a loser in this year’s Manager of the Year voting. But considering everything, Craig Counsell deserves manager of the year. The Brewers came into the year as major underdogs, as the Cubs were expected to dominate the NL Central. At the end of it, the Brewers won the NL Central and finished with the best team in the NL. The Braves were in a similar situation, as the Nationals were expected to dominate the NL East. Despite the Braves being a year ahead of schedule, Brian Snitker does not deserve the award as much as Counsell. Snitker largely relied on a weak division and Acuna Jr. for a large portion of his success. Counsell managed his way to the postseason and deserves the NL Manager of the Year.

AL: Bob Melvin

The AL Manager of the Year is really hard to mess, as there are 3 really, really good options. Kevin Cash won 90 games on a team designed to lose(while also being in the same division as the Yankees and the Red Sox), Bob Melvin won 97 with the lowest payroll in baseball and Alex Cora won 108 games. But if I were forced to choose, I’d choose Melvin. The A’s weren’t expected to win, unlike the Red Sox, and made the postseason, unlike the Rays. I give Melvin the slightest of edges, although all three could easily win.

Cy Young:

NL: Jacob deGrom

This one should be the easiest choice out of all of them. Considering he has a 1.70 ERA(second is 2.37) and he finished at the top or near the top in every valuable statistic(FIP, ERA+, innings, strikeouts etc.), he should win the award easily. Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer had extremely good years too; deGrom just outperformed them.

AL: Blake Snell

This one shouldn’t be particularly hard either. With Chris Sale eliminated from the voting, it’s left to Snell, Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. Snell finished with a 1.89 ERA, second in MLB, in 180.2 innings. Verlander has the advantage in some key categories, such as innings, strikeouts, WHIP and strikeouts to walks. But the difference in ERA is too substantial to look past and Snell will likely win the AL CY Young Award.

MVP:

NL: Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich had too good of a year not to win the MVP. Nolan Arenado and Javy Baez finished with similar home run totals and RBI totals as Yelich, yet finished well behind him in the rate stats. Yelich had an OPS of 1.000, compared to Arenado’s .935 and Baez’s .881. Although Baez’s and Arenado’s defense are better than Yelich’s, it’s not substantial enough to dethrone him as NL MVP. Also, it should be noted that the Brewers were the only team out of the three to win the division, giving him an advantage to the voters who care about a team’s success.

AL: Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts deserves the AL MVP despite Mike Trout’s efforts. Betts led the AL in batting average, runs, and slugging percentage, while playing Gold Glove defense in right field. He finished near or above Trout in every single important stat, while also playing on a 108 win team. Betts should win pretty much unanimously.