Mets Offseason Dilemma

The Mets finished the 2019 season with a respectable 86 wins, missing the playoffs by a couple of games. It is clear that a few major flaws, mainly the bullpen and defense, kept them out of the playoffs. With free agency already starting, the Mets need to make a few necessary transactions to push them into the playoffs next year. The most obvious would be signing a starter (Zack Wheeler), along with 2 above average relievers (Will Harris, Drew Pomeranz etc.) and defensive replacements in center field (Jarrod Dyson) and at catcher (Martin Maldonado). These are obvious needs that can be filled by a few different players. But there is an issue: the Mets’ luxury tax payroll is estimated to be about 20 million under the luxury tax. Simply signing Wheeler would likely take out the majority, if not all, of the money the Mets have to spend. The Wilpons are known for their cheapness, so they likely do not want to go over the luxury tax. This likely means that the Mets will opt to sign a few lower level free agents and not sign anyone to significant deals. While the Wilpons may not want to go over the luxury tax, it will greatly improve the Mets’ chances at making the playoffs.

The luxury tax is a soft cap, where a team can go over but will be punished (worse punishment for each consecutive year over the tax) for going over the amount. Right now, it is set at 208 million dollars, and is calculated by taking the average annual value of each contract on the payroll. The punishment for going over for one year is the having to pay 120% of the money they went over. The Mets have money coming off the books after the 2020 season (Cespedes, Wright, Ramos, Lowrie etc). This means that they would likely only have to be over the luxury tax for one year. If the Mets come back under the luxury tax in 2021, they would never have to face the harsher punishments of consecutive years over the luxury tax. Therefore, it would not be too bad to go over the luxury tax because it will only cost them a few million dollars, which is nothing in baseball terms. 

It would be beneficial for the Mets to go over the tax because a few million dollars is worth a good chance at the playoffs. If the Mets simply signed free agents to fill in their holes (not that long of a list but desperate nonetheless), they would be a favorite for a wild-card spot, and could compete in the division. But, as the team currently stands, it will need a lot of luck to be a playoff team. If the Wilpons decide to cheap out again, their team will likely feel the negative effects.